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August 16, 2012 / JayMan

Dark Times Ahead?

I just saw The Dark Knight Rises, and interestingly, I just happen to stumble again on this post by M.G. on her blog, Those Who Can See. M.G.’s post, in an odd confluence, echoes some of the concepts from the film.

One image from the movie that stuck in my mind was a scene that showed tattered American flags flying after the country endured a great crisis. To me, this—particularly after having read M.G.’s post again—seemed symbolic of a weakened America, a country wracked by internal strife and left unable to defend itself from an external threat. It is, as I see, a sad statement on the state of affairs in this country.

And that, unfortunately, is not necessarily good. The HBD-sphere abounds with these problems, and the primary culprit is the problem of (primarily) low-IQ immigration, of which, primarily Mexican immigration. As M.G.’s post details, this—in addition to undermining America’s ethnic solidarity—threatens to dilute the high-IQ majority, and hence reduce the relative size of America’s smart fraction, which is key to the country’s economic and technological vitality.

Featured on M.G.’s post was this map:

 …depicting her “demographic submersion model”; that is, White Americans fleeing the increasingly Mexican dominated western parts of the country, apparently retreating northward and eastward away from Old Mexico.

There is one large and serious complication with this scenario (at least for any piecemeal migratory retreat): much of the middle of the country is on its way to becoming uninhabitable, thanks to global warming. As it stands, the climate of the interior is becoming more like the Sahel than the Great Plains. If this keeps up—as I’m sure it will—I suspect that people will begin to reverse migrate north and east (which is a pain for me here in Maine, because I don’t exactly want tons of newcomers from the rest country here; a few is fine, but not any sort of mass exodus).

These and other things leave me with the gnawing suspicion that dark times are ahead.

The country is being overrun with foreigners, primarily Mexicans. The large numbers of East and South Asian immigrants aren’t necessarily horrendously helpful, either.

The economic malaise that the country is currently experiencing is (as HBD’ers are mostly aware) here to stay. The problem is due to both a top-heavy distribution of wealth and an overly abundant economically under-productive low-IQ underclass, both of which are symptoms of the same problem: too many immigrants. Dennis Mangan (whose blog is now down) had an excellent post which featured a graph which associated the degree of wealth inequality with the immigrant share of the population. As Steve Sailer noted, the presence of immigrants and the easy and cheap labor they provide suppresses wages for everybody, which is bad for the economy, because it is middle class spending that drives the economy.

As well, the increasing political polarization, thanks to deep ideological differences between the various American ethnicities—and the increasing political division along racial lines, can’t be good.

I think Peter Turchin’s concept of cliodynamics is on to something

Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut, has discovered the violent upheavals seems occur along a roughly 50 year cycle. If he is correct, and if this pattern holds, with the violence of the 1960s and ‘70s considered, it seems that we are on course for rough times around the year 2020. The current signs are not at all promising.

Government is growing increasingly dysfunctional as the political parties drift apart. As well, there is growing racial tension in the political process, with racial interests overtly or covertly (as Whiskey describes so well) underlying American politics. This will almost certainly increase, particularly as the immigration problem becomes more acute.

The problem of demographics distress, ongoing economic strife, and an increasingly fractured political process may eventually boil over. As it stands now, it is not evident that any of these stressors will abate. Immigration is slated to continue. Whites will continue to become a smaller and smaller fraction of the population—and this fraction will come to be dominated more by its more fundamentalist elements thanks to liberal under-fertility. The climate will continue to grow hotter, with more, stronger storms and weather-related catastrophes, likely pushing people away from the country’s interior.

Income inequality is likely to remain high or even increase. The value of an education is diminishing. Securing an economic future is becoming increasingly more difficult as the value of labor continues to decrease. This leads to a growing disaffected segment of the population, which both the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street protests each symbolize.

I very much hope that Turchin is wrong. Any of these problems could theoretically ameliorate: immigration reform could be enacted; the economy could improve; climate change may not be as bad as predicted. But the evidence so far isn’t pointing in this direction, and while Turchin’s hypothesis remains untested (for only time can test it), it seems to serve as a harbinger of things to come.

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15 Comments

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  1. The Reluctant Apostate / Aug 16 2012 9:34 PM

    A couple of housekeeping notes on this post:
    First, you wouldn’t know this unless she had told you, but M.G. is a woman, so I would suggest editing the post to reflect that fact. Second, because of the transparency in the map image from M.G.’s blog, the text at the top is not very readable, so I’ve done a quick touch up on it so that it works better on a blog with a dark background:

    As for the content of the post, predictions of future conditions are difficult to make accurately. However, I suspect that some of the issues you raise are more important than others. Most of the areas in the west and southwest that have been especially prone to forest fires in recent years are not particularly well-populated, whereas the populated areas of the interior of the country are not particularly prone to fire and drought. The recent stretch of dryness (which is not guaranteed to be permanent) is not likely to rank highly on the list of issues.

    I also wonder if the demographic transition has removed some of the fuel that led to the cycles of violence in our country’s past. By Turchin’s chart, it seems pretty clear that violence levels in the most recent spike were a bit lower than the previous cycles. A key point here is that unlike the 70s, we don’t have a situation analogous to the wave of baby boomers coming of age that probably played a large role in that spike.

    The area that troubles me most is the one of immigration because it is hard to undo the demographic changes that result and if the process continues unabated with current fertility levels staying as they are, we could see a rather dramatic retreat of the current mix of ethnicities juxtaposed with a rising tide of outsiders within a human lifetime, which would inexorably alter the character of this country and likely destabilize it. The problem at the moment is that it’s a slow death and one whose prevention runs counter to the values of our current ruling class.

    • JayMan / Aug 18 2012 1:25 PM

      A couple of housekeeping notes on this post:
      First, you wouldn’t know this unless she had told you, but M.G. is a woman, so I would suggest editing the post to reflect that fact

      Thanks! Nope, I didn’t know that, I’ll have to go through and fix the posts where I reference her.

      Thanks for the image, I’ve changed it to yours.

      Most of the areas in the west and southwest that have been especially prone to forest fires in recent years are not particularly well-populated, whereas the populated areas of the interior of the country are not particularly prone to fire and drought.

      I don’t think fires and drought are the only problems, but summer temperatures as well. As well, there’s always coastal flooding down the line.

      I also wonder if the demographic transition has removed some of the fuel that led to the cycles of violence in our country’s past. By Turchin’s chart, it seems pretty clear that violence levels in the most recent spike were a bit lower than the previous cycles. A key point here is that unlike the 70s, we don’t have a situation analogous to the wave of baby boomers coming of age that probably played a large role in that spike.

      Very possible. It’s hard to know how reliable this pattern is because it’s not exactly clear what causes it (generational effects seemed to be involved).

      Interestingly, my gf thinks that knowledge of HBD, were it to become widely known, could itself be a source of conflict. I alluded to this before; the problem is that people may not be able judge individuals on their own merit, but rather resort to sweeping generalizations about groups—with perhaps some justification (as indeed, all things being equal, one is making the safer bet to be more wary of a young Black male than a young White male).

      Whereas I take the stance that, as with any truth, society just has to comes to terms with it and adjust accordingly.

      The area that troubles me most is the one of immigration because it is hard to undo the demographic changes that result … which would inexorably alter the character of this country and likely destabilize it. The problem at the moment is that it’s a slow death and one whose prevention runs counter to the values of our current ruling class.

      Follow the money, so to speak.

  2. Anonymous / Aug 16 2012 10:47 PM

    Many of your links are broken and have a closing quotation mark appended to the URL.

    • JayMan / Aug 18 2012 1:09 PM

      Fixed! Thanks, it apparently was a MS Word artifact.

  3. M.G. / Aug 19 2012 5:05 PM

    The biggest spikes on Turchin’s graph are ‘racially motivated violence,’ around the 1870 and 1920. I have a hypothesis that when Afros in America have been granted a new freedom/right, they’ve often reacted with a wave of violence. During Reconstruction, with the slaves freed and the Euro South under northern occupation, black-on-white violence jumped (and was the origin of many lynchings).

    The ‘Great Migration’ of southern Blacks to the industrial north began around 1910, after which crime spiked in northern cities. (Incidentally, many segregation laws date to this era–abolitionist northerners had a sudden change of heart when the objects of their affection moved in next door.) Authors at that time speculated black crime in the North came from this ‘new freedom’–moved from the countryside to the big, anonymous city and free from the vigilant, often violent surveillance of the southern White, the Black ‘gave in to every impulse.’

    1960s, again, we see the biggest black riots occurred after the landmark 1965 Civil Rights Act. Black criminality in cities exploded during this era of de-segregation; it wasn’t until the harsh clampdown in the 80s and 90s that it was brought somewhat under control.

    I suspect something similar is happening now with the black flash mobs and general intensification of black-on-white violence since Obama’s inauguration. A few such attacks have been accompanied by cries such as ‘it’s a black world now’ and ‘we president now’; I suspect the sentiment is widespread. We’ll see if this current wave is just a blip, if it continues or intensifies.

    The U.S. has always been about 90% white and 10% black, and waves of racial violence have always been contained. This brave new demographic world we’ve entered may change that (64% white, 13% black, 17% hispanic; over 50% of births to non-whites now).

    I agree with Reluctant Apostate that the recent immivasion (mostly hispanic) is the biggest threat to U.S. stability. But as you point out JayMan, it seems the most fertile Whites at this point are the most religious, and the liberal immigration-lovers are eliminating themselves from the gene pool (one or no children). So what will the character of ‘white America’ even look like in 50 years? I suspect we are headed for a swing in a conservative/traditionalist direction.

    White Euros have shown they can prosper even with a huge low-IQ, high-impulsivity underclass (see South Africa). But what lengths will U.S. Euros be willing to go totoday in order to contain such an underclass? 90% Euro–10% NAM is America’s past. At 50% Euro–50% NAM…? Who can say?

    (Reluctant Apostate, good to ‘hear’ you…Hadn’t seen hide nor hair of you for a long time! Hope you’re just on a break from blogging.)

  4. thesoftpath / Oct 14 2012 10:41 PM

    JayMan, You might consider reading Lubos Motl on climate change.

  5. Luke Lea / Apr 9 2013 11:03 PM

    If it’s any comfort, anthropogenic global warming is likely to be less extreme, and less bad, than you may have been led to believe. Follow Lubos Motl on the topic of “climate sensitivity” for the why: http://tinyurl.com/bwtb8l7

  6. Luke Lea / Apr 9 2013 11:04 PM

    Oops! I see I made essentially the same comment some time ago. Still timely though.

  7. Antifeminist / Jun 12 2013 5:50 PM

    Thanks for the article by the way. This was a graphic that I was looking for since some time because I came myself to the same conclusion of a 50-year-cycle after analyzing how the bizarre idea of feminism and gender equality exploded roughly around 1960/1970 and how it is now fading. But I call it rather the 50-year-cycle of zeitgeist.

    • JayMan / Jun 12 2013 9:16 PM

      Some of your comments were caught by spam filter. They sit now in moderation, and I don’t think I will approve them thanks to their hateful, and baseless tone…

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